Quality Not Quantity Required

LEITZU got to 10/1 in the end but to no avail, it trailed in 5th. The rest were at ordinary prices FLYING DESTINATION (7/1) THUNDER BAY (100/3) DARCY'S PRIDE (5/1)SEASONAL CROSS(11/4) ORPEN WINGER(5/1) but apart from SEASONAL CROSS winning were all unplaced.

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Plenty of meetings again tomorrow but only three suitable races

Ayr

14:20 SILVER LINNET(5/1)

17:50 POSITIVITY (5/1)

Goodwood

17:40 BRANDYWELL BOY (5/1)

Looks like another blank day tomorrow and another opportunity to lose more wedge trading.

P

Busy Day

Neither SIR BRUNO(6/1) nor TRULY MAGIC(15/2) approached being overlayed and finished 3rd and unplaced respectively.


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Tomorrow four meetings throw up six qualifying races

Kempton

19:20 FLYING DUTCHMAN (7/2)

Newcastle

14.10 THUNDER BAY (5/2)

14:40 DARCY'S PRIDE (4/1)

Nottingham

17:10 LEITZU (8/1)

Salisbury

14:00 SEASONAL CROSS (7/2)

16:50 ORPEN WINGER (4/1)

Maybe LEITZU will offer value but it looks like little else will.

P.

Ho Hum

BERMONDSEY BOB surprisingly offered value (11/1), all to no avail, however, as it trailed in well down the field. Of the rest, none reached value or got in the frameCHOREOGRAPHY (9/2) MULTAHAB (3/1) INVINCIBLE ISLE (11/4) What a miserable performance, eh?


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As for tomorrow,two races :-

Warwick

16:10 SIR BRUNO (9/2)

16:40 TRULY MAGIC (9/4)

Not much likelihood of an overlay there.

P.

Elna Bright Provides First Value Winner

At last ELNA BRIGHT won at 14/1 to become the first value winner since the start of this blog. None of the remaining selectinos achieved a value price DISTANT SUN won at 11/2, SEA SALT was 2nd at 5/1 and BAHAMIAN MUSIC trailed in last at 5/1

The first post of this blog was on Sunday 16th August which just shows the patience required when searching for value.

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There doesn't look to be a likelihood of anything being overlayed tomorrow but for completeness sake the four races considered are :-

Brighton

15:50 CHOREOGRAPHY (5/1)

17:20 BERMONDSEY BOB (5/1)

17:50 MULTAHAB (9/2)

Wolverhampton

17:00 INCINCIBLE ISLE (5/1)

P.

Elna Bright Provides First Value Winner

At last, a sigh of relief ELNA BRIGHT won at 14/1 after drifting from 9/1 for the first identified value winner since the start of this blog. Of the remaining three none of which offered value DISTANT SUN won at 11/2, SEA SALT was 2nd at 5/1 and BAHAMIAN MUSIC trailed in last 5/1.

Back To Business

I was too tired and too frazzled, after another unsuccessful night trading, to be bothered with a post last night, and yesterdays selections seemed similarly afflicted GLOUCESTER trailed in eighth of ten at 5/1 FEELIN FOXY mangaged to get second at 15/2 and CAVENDISH the days only value trailed in last at 20/1

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Tomorrowoffers four races for consideration :-

Ascot

15:50 BAHAMIAN MUSIC (7/1)

17:00 ELNA BRIGHT (12/1)

Musselburgh

14:30 SEA SALT (8/1)

17:20 DISTANT SUN (4/1)

ELNA BRIGHT is crrently trading at 18 (back) on Betfair.

P.

Value on Show

After a day of thumb twiddling tomorrow is back with a small bang, if there is such a thing. Three races meet my criteria :-

Ascot

16:55 GLOUCESTER (10/1)

Wolverhampton

18:50 FEELIN FOXY (4/1)

21:20 CAVENDISH (20/1)

CAVENDISH is 21 to back with Betfair now and is likely to lengthen.

P.

Blank Day Coming Up

We live in strange times WE HAVE A DREAM as expected wasn't overlayed winning at a miserable 3/1, COLORUS forecast in The Sporting Life at 7/2 yesterday was sent off at 12/1 definitely overlayed but trailed in last but one whilst DOME ROCKET forecast at 20/1 went off at 8/1 only briefly being on offer at 10/1, it lost anyway but the lesson is there. Don't believe everything you read in the papers. If you can get value grab it while you can, similarly if experts decisions can vary so much, what makes you think a 10/1 shot you pick hasn't a chance

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Tomorrow there are no races which meet my criteria, therefore I will play a little on Betfair trying to get some sort of idea how people make huge wedges of money trading.

P.

Midweek Treat - DOME ROCKET

DOMTEN DOWN (8/1) didn't reach a value price and didn't reach a place either so yet another tame day, only to be expected I suppose with the season winding down to a close.


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Tomorrow has three races which fit the inspection criteria:-

Goodwood

14:10 WE HAVE A DREAM (11/4)

17:30 COLORAS (7/2)

Kempton

19:20 DOME ROCKET (20/1)

DOME ROCKET will be the horse I'll be paying special attention to once my tea's settled, looks as though there will be some value about.

P.

Slack Day Ahead

None of the selections achieved a good enough price to be worth backing. KILLER CLASS (13/2) and NICKEL SILVER (9/2) failed dismally anyway whilst VITORIA (11/4) won


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Another slack day tomorrow, with just one race of interest :-

Folkestone

14:50 TEN DOWN (7/1)

It loks as if it'll be another blank day from a value point of view.

P.

Slack Times

HINDU KUSH was on offer at a value price (10/1), but found nothing after being held up to trail in last.

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A little more exciting for me as I wrestled with trading again and again my carefully scraped together trades were devastated by one which went haywire and once again I was obliged to recover with a "Dutch". Ah well trading fills the not inconsiderable gaps between value bets.

Tomorrow three races fit the criteria :-

Hamilton

14:40 VITORIA (6/1)

16:40 KILLER CLASS (7/1)

Leicester

15:20 NICKEL SILVER (8/1)

I suppose that it's possible any of the three could be overlayed although, at the moment, there is nothing about.

P.

Craicattack Close Up Third

Things got a little exciting yesterday with CRAICATTACK (opened 20/1, sp 16/1) staying on to challenge in final furlong finishing a little over 1/2 a length 3rd.

I didn't spot any of the others being overlayed. SIR SANDICLIFFE (5/1) and ALANBROOKE (5/2) made the frame and ELITE LAND (2/1) . BRUNELLESCHI (15/2) and ISPHAHAN (11/2) finished well down their respective fields.

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I had a hectic day yesterday hence the delay in posting this. I decided to give Betangel professional a shot after a few years of trying to get some sort of idea of what "trading" was all about and failing dismally. My warped logic, went thus "I can't make money trading therefore, as I've had loads of practice, it must be the software edge everybody else has got". Naturally this was not the case at all, my target of paying for the software meant I had to make 67p (and will have to for the duration of the time I 've paid) Trading remains a mystery to me, on one race I made 9 positions, 7 of which triggered the stop loss I had placed to prevent losing every penny I possess, luckily the horse lost allowing me to break even. By the time I decided to recover my losses I was well in the hole as the tiny profits I made from the few successful trades were easily swallowed up by the massive losses when one of the losing trades went in. I finished up using the Dutching facility which I really like to recover and get just over my target profit. I'm very stubborn, however, and will try trading again today.

Today only one race fits my criteria :-

Hamilton

16:10 HINDU KUSH (9/1)

I'll keep an eye on it, just in case, 10/1 is available with a few online bookies as I write,

P.

CRAICATTACK

Only academic interest today none of the runners getting near value CALALOO and RICHELIEU making no impression and LETHAL COMBINATION winning

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Tomorrow only offers one really interesting horse amongst the six considered

Catterick

14:00 SIR SANDICLIFFE (5/1)

16:45 ELITE LAND (4/1)

Newbury

13:50 CRAICATTACK (20/1)

Newmarket

13:45 BRUNELLESCHI (9/2)

15:40 ALANBROOKE (5/1)

16:50 ISPHAHAN (7/1)

CRAICATTACK is trading at 18 on Betfair as I write this and looks set to lengthen.

P.

Lean Spell Continues

RAGAMUFFIN MAN a non-runner and GALA CASINO STAR 2nd at 5/1 were of only passing interest today. EXIT SMILING providing the little tingle of anticipation which value seeking is all about. At times 15 (back) was available on Betfair, the price on course plying around and finishing at 11/1. The horse challenged but failed to get in the money by the matter of 1/2 a length.

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Tomorrow looks to be unfruitful in the quest for value three races to consider :-

Newbury

16:30 CALALOO (7/2)

Newmarket

17:25 LETHAL COMBINATION (8/1)

Wolverhampton

19:50 RICHELIEU (7/2)

It's possible the LETHAL COMBINATION will offer value in places, we shall see.

P.

UNCLE FRED didn't go today and LORD THEO didn't reach a value price despite drifting from 13/2 to 8/1, The lack of confidence was justified as LORD THEO stumbled coming out of the stalls and was unable to get involved.

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Things are pretty "flat" at the moment. I've never been a believer in luck and lucky streaks, only in pure statistics, but it's at times like this when it's easy to see why people set such store in that elusive factor. From a personal point of view I just sit it out.Tomorrow there are three races which qualify on "number of runners" grounds

Ayr

16:50 EXIT SMILING (10/1)

17:50 GALA CASINO STAR (8/1)

Pontefract

16:30 RAGAMUFFIN MAN (5/1)

EXIT SMILING looks as though it may offer a value bet, possibly even GALA CASINO STAR as well.

P.

Mild Midweek Fare

As anticipated HADA MEN and TOTAL IMPACT never offered value and barely troubled the judge either finishing down the field and third respectively. METHAALY offered value briefly on course drifting from 10/1 to 12/1 before withdrawals forced a new market and it's price was only 9/1. It's tepid display matched the price and it finished well down the field.

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Two races where a overlays look likely tomorrow

Sandown

17:10 UNCLE FRED (16/1)

Yarmouth

15:55 LORD THEO (10/1)

P.

METHAALY Will Be Overlayed

As expected neither horse in the two races of interest today got anywhere near being overlayed OPTICAL ILLUSION going off at 11/2 and FINSBURY at 5/1, just as well really since neither got a blow in and finished out of the money.

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Tomorrow things are a little more interesting :-

Haydock

16:00 METHAALY (25/1)

16:30 HADA MEN (9/2)

Yarmouth

16:40 TOTAL IMPACT (4/1)

METHAALY is already 17.5 on Betfair and is likely to lengthen further.

P.

Backers Frenzy For "Thunderous"

Two of todays failed to attain value YURITUNI went off favourite and obliged at 11/8, whilst BRANDYWELL BOY was second at 100/30. The real interest for me was in PRINCE OF THEBES which went off at 16/1 and tracked theleading briefly 2 furlongs out before fading to the back of the field and THUNDEROUS MOOD which was backed in from 16/1 to 8/1 on course but just failed to get a place finishing fourth.

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After this mornings tome anybody reading probably won't want a lengthy discourse, so I'll just say that two races qualify tomorrow

Musselburgh

14:20 OPTICAL ILLUSION (4/1)

17:50 FINSBURY (11/4)

No interest there, might as well go to work instead,

P.

To Trade or Not to Trade? That is The Question

Yesterday I took advantage of a free trial offer from one of the trading software companies and after a mind frazzling seven hours trying to trade a profit didn't feel like writing this blog hence the "lateness"

The offer did bring to mind the question of whether or not "trading" (using a betting exchange for wagers) my selections is viable, since the whole concept is based on "value". The tricky bit is can the traders spot the "value" which I think is present, if so the price should shorten until the value is gone, if not then their is unlikely to be a "shortening effect". I'm still undecided on this and haven't enough stats to back me up, but I have had a little success using the following guidelines :-

1. The selection (I use only those identified in this blog)must offer value i.e. it must be greater than 10/1 then even if it doesn't shrink in price it is still overlayed and will show a profit in the long run.

2. I'm using a cautious approach and firstly offer a back price of either twice the forecast price in The Sporting Life, or if the price on The Exchange is greater than The Sporting Life price, twice the offered price.

3. If the back price is taken, I offer a lay price, usually about five points lower, although several have "come in " ten points on the exchanges.

4. As the prices are overlays and offer a statistical profit in the long run I will "keep" the price into running (several have shortened to as low as 2/1 in running) although you need to be quick if spreading the profit across the field and one of the free trading software packages e.g Betangel Basic is essential as it contains a "greening" function.

The drawback with this approach is the lack of liquidity on the exchanges. Whilst it is possible to make a few quid, from a trading point of view it would be very small beer, good practise for the beginner though.

I had a little success using this method yesterday when offering 21 (back) for RIO COBOLO which was forecast priced at 11/2 in The Sporting Life. It actually got as far as 22 or 23 and was backed back down to as far as 10 or 11 at one point pre-race (I chickened out and took 17.5 (lay) although my beautiful wife held her nerve longer and got 14 (lay)). As it happened RIO COBOLO (opened at 10/1 shortened to 8/1 went off at 9/1) might as well have been better employed on Scarbrough beach, finishing a dismal last but one.

Of the others, none reached the value trigger, SURUOR went off 7/2 fav and sank without trace, HAZY DANCER in spite of being forecast 10/1 opened at 11/2 on the course before drifting to 9/1 then recovering a little to go off at 8/1 and trailing in at the back of the field. GREYLAMI also opened shorter than the forecast 10/1 at 13/2 shortened to 5/1 (on course) and scraped a place.

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On to day, refreshed and with renewed enthusiasm. There are four races which have selections

Bath

14:25 YURITUNI (11/4)

16:10 THUNDEROUS MOOD (14/1)

Ffos

17:05 BRANDYWELL BOY (5/2)

Goodwood

14:35 PRINCE OF THEBES (33/1!)

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out the two value selections here, even a Civil Engineer can do it. THUNDEROUS MOOD is 20/1 (18.5 Betfair) with Stan James as I write (I've offered 29 (back)) PRINCE OF THEBES is 33/1 with Skybet (28 Betfair , my offer 70). Lets hope for some glory.

P.

Returno

It seems a lifetime since I last looked at the racing, but for completeness sake on 30th August MAKE AMENDS didn't go, GRAND ART was second at 5/1, STEP IT UP (9/4f) was a more than disappointing last but one. SWOP attained value opening at 10/1 and being backed in to 6/1 but didn't show

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The thick end of a fortnight in Majorca was great as long as you stayed out of the capital, where an English bloke was brained and died after a few days, the female leader of a gypsy drugs gang was shot in the head and killed. The break gave me the time to do a little other writing as well as resting and I've now got the bones of a short story, to tidy up. I'd always fancied trying to get a pece of fiction published and this is going to be the first attempt.

Back to the racing, tomorrow's thrown up a couple of interesting horses out of the four races that fit my requirements :-

Chester

16:30 RIO CABOLO 11/2

Goodwood

14:10 SURUOR 7/2

15:10 HAZY DANCER 10/1

17:30 GREYLAMI 10/1

I'll be watching the last two with interest.

P.