To Trade or Not to Trade? That is The Question

Yesterday I took advantage of a free trial offer from one of the trading software companies and after a mind frazzling seven hours trying to trade a profit didn't feel like writing this blog hence the "lateness"

The offer did bring to mind the question of whether or not "trading" (using a betting exchange for wagers) my selections is viable, since the whole concept is based on "value". The tricky bit is can the traders spot the "value" which I think is present, if so the price should shorten until the value is gone, if not then their is unlikely to be a "shortening effect". I'm still undecided on this and haven't enough stats to back me up, but I have had a little success using the following guidelines :-

1. The selection (I use only those identified in this blog)must offer value i.e. it must be greater than 10/1 then even if it doesn't shrink in price it is still overlayed and will show a profit in the long run.

2. I'm using a cautious approach and firstly offer a back price of either twice the forecast price in The Sporting Life, or if the price on The Exchange is greater than The Sporting Life price, twice the offered price.

3. If the back price is taken, I offer a lay price, usually about five points lower, although several have "come in " ten points on the exchanges.

4. As the prices are overlays and offer a statistical profit in the long run I will "keep" the price into running (several have shortened to as low as 2/1 in running) although you need to be quick if spreading the profit across the field and one of the free trading software packages e.g Betangel Basic is essential as it contains a "greening" function.

The drawback with this approach is the lack of liquidity on the exchanges. Whilst it is possible to make a few quid, from a trading point of view it would be very small beer, good practise for the beginner though.

I had a little success using this method yesterday when offering 21 (back) for RIO COBOLO which was forecast priced at 11/2 in The Sporting Life. It actually got as far as 22 or 23 and was backed back down to as far as 10 or 11 at one point pre-race (I chickened out and took 17.5 (lay) although my beautiful wife held her nerve longer and got 14 (lay)). As it happened RIO COBOLO (opened at 10/1 shortened to 8/1 went off at 9/1) might as well have been better employed on Scarbrough beach, finishing a dismal last but one.

Of the others, none reached the value trigger, SURUOR went off 7/2 fav and sank without trace, HAZY DANCER in spite of being forecast 10/1 opened at 11/2 on the course before drifting to 9/1 then recovering a little to go off at 8/1 and trailing in at the back of the field. GREYLAMI also opened shorter than the forecast 10/1 at 13/2 shortened to 5/1 (on course) and scraped a place.

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On to day, refreshed and with renewed enthusiasm. There are four races which have selections

Bath

14:25 YURITUNI (11/4)

16:10 THUNDEROUS MOOD (14/1)

Ffos

17:05 BRANDYWELL BOY (5/2)

Goodwood

14:35 PRINCE OF THEBES (33/1!)

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out the two value selections here, even a Civil Engineer can do it. THUNDEROUS MOOD is 20/1 (18.5 Betfair) with Stan James as I write (I've offered 29 (back)) PRINCE OF THEBES is 33/1 with Skybet (28 Betfair , my offer 70). Lets hope for some glory.

P.