Betfair or Bookies?

MOHEEBB was on offer on Betfair at 23 and went off at 12/1, plenty of value there, pity that on this occasion the market was correct and it finished well down the field. In a similar vein HANNICEAN could have been matched at 23 or 24 mid morning, in th end HANNICEAN was a non runner.

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The, at times, huge discrepancy in price between bookmakers and Betfair is worth mentioning at this point. There is much made of the alleged 20% better average price available with Betfair (by Betfair) over bookmakers. If you're a favourite backer this edge seems to be, at the very least, elusive. In practice the short priced horses seem to be comparable between bookies and Betfair, however, the longer priced animals can be significantly, sometimes spectacularly different. Why? Maybe the Betfair layers are more generous than bookies or maybe they have less respect for the "rags", whatever the reason ther are some juicy prices out there for people seeking overlays. Keep your eyes open.

I'm going for a fortnights holiday tomorrow so this fledgeling Blog will be suspended for a while. Tomorrow there are four races to look at

Beverley

16:15 GRAND ART

Goodwood

15:20 MAKE AMENDS

17:05 SWOP

17:40 STEP IT UP

Of these GRAND ART and SWOP look possible value bets being quoted at 16/1 and 10/1 repectively by The Sporting Life. Be lucky, but better, be patient.

P.

Jaw Dropping

I was more than a little surprised to see that Hamilton was abandoned this morning. Historically August is the second wettest month of the year but still. Ah well I suppose the officials know best. Pity though, I was keen to see how PRIMO'S WAY got on after being quoted at a spectacular 33/1 in The Sporting Life. Of the other two TASTE THE WINE didn't get near going off at 7/1. RAIMOND RIDGE was really interesting, however. I couldn't believe my eyes this morning when it was on offer on Betfair at 23 having opened around about 7. Well at more than double value price, I tried to find out if a leg had fallen off. There was no suggestion of anything amiss with the Channon horse, so it was blazing value when you consider the bookie price of 8/1. It showed strongly and finished a close up though held second.

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When you see a value bet like today, it's Christmas come early, grab it and thank the gods. Several years ago, one bookie offered a horse I'd identified, running at Ripon at 20/1. I had my piece then settled back. The horse opened at about 12/1 which boosted my confidence, was backed in to 8/1 and went on to win. Of course days like that don't come along too often and it didn't work out today, but it when it does, life seems sweet.

Tomorrow in spite of a plethora of meetings there are only two races of interest

Newmarket

17:05 MOHEEBB

Windsor

17:10 HANNICEAN

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Imponderables

ONCEUPONATIME finished up being overlayed, opening at 14/1 and going off at 12/1, in fact it touched 22 on Betfair, so apart from me it was completely unfancied. In the end, the rest of humanity were correct to be suspicious, as, like a fair number of these selections, ONCEUPONATIME ran with absolutely no distinction, never getting in a blow.

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Taking the question of performance a little further. One of the reasons successful gambling on sporting events is so difficult is because there are so many imponderables which the bettor simply can't assess. That is why backing favourites is frequently unprofitable and attacking a generous (or perhaps urecognised) edge based on solid statistics is so attractive. Even so, and no matter how well thought out a plan, sometimes a horse just isn't up to the mark, feels off colour, can't be bothered etc.

Onwards and upwards, tomorrow, three races are of interest

Bath

18:40 TASTE THE WINE

19:10 RAIMOND RIDGE

Hamilton

19:30 PRIMO WAY

According to the Sporting Life betting forecast TASTE THE WINE and PRIMO WAY both look potential overlays the first at 10/1 the second at a mouth watering 33/1.

P.

Overlays Come and Go

None of todays possible value horses got anywhere near being overlayed. CAPTAIN SCOOBY (7/2) finished mid table, SPIDERS STAR (6/4) won, DANCE AND DANCE didn't go and TAKE TEN (3/1) won.

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Only one race to consider the 16:50 at Lingfield in which ONCEUPONATIME gets the vote but at a forecast price of 7/1 an overlay, once again looks unlikely with the bookies. There's a whole £3 available about it on Betfair at 15, who knows which way it will go but it might pay to keep an eye on it.

P.

Lean Spell Continues

There are a few races to consider tomorrow, but none of the selections look likely to offer value at the betting window. For completeness the selections fall as follows

Ayr

16:40 CAPTAIN SCOOBY

Catterick

15:20 SPIDERS STAR

15:50 DANCE AND DANCE

Warwick

14:30 TAKE TEN

Maybe Thursday will offer something better.

P.

Calculating Value Price

JENNY'S PRIDE never looked like being value and equally never looked like getting in the race, finished well down the field in spite of being backed in from 100/30 to 9/4.

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Since there are no races which fit my criteria tomorrow, now seems as good a time as any to decide exactly how to determine value. There are a lot of ideas about this crucial aspect of betting. some based on logic others on "feel". How often have you heard a television "expert" utter the words "Predicton's Postulator is way overpriced at 10/1", well, I concede never, since no such horse exists but you get the picture. They never quantify it but still seem convinced of its accuracy. I prefer facts.

So how did I arrive at 11/1 for value and occasionally mention 14/1. Logic thats how.

Take the above Predicton's Postulator example. For the horse to be overpriced its actual chance of winning must be less than 10/1.

In my analysis I calculated the percentage of winning top rated horses then divided that figure into one hundred to obtain a "break even" price. The next step was to "re-visit" the analysis removing all top rated horses priced at less than the "break even" figure. Then back to the first step with the revised list. This process was repeated until the percentage did not reduce, this gave the value price. If the percentage continues to reduce, level stakes profit can't be made. Give it a try with your own selection process.

That's all folks.

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Jockeyship

TORNADODANCER just might have been the first value success since the start of this blog with a more experienced jockey on board. The race reading tells a sorry tale of problem after problem, not a great story in a 5 furlong race, before the horse finished strongly in second place. That said, it's all accounted for in the stats. and on another day, fortune will break the other way. TORNADODANCER opened at 10/1 drifted to 14/1 before shrinking to 11/1. Betfair had the horse at around 20 at times.

PEGASUS LAD (7/2) didn't get anywhere near overlayed, but it did show taking the lead 3 out before fading to midfield.

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Mondays alway seem a bit slow, maybe, everybody's drawing breath after a hectic Saturday, anyway, there's only one race to look at for me. My ratings confirm the accepted view that the poorest racing fare is early in the week and this week is no exception.

Hamilton

3:50 JENNY'S PRIDE

Unless you can find a blunder and the bookies don't cancel the bet because of a "palpable error" (funny how punters can't do that isn't it?) there is no value to be had with the forecast price being 4/1

P.

THUNDER GORGE and LADY PATTERN were both overlayed today, unfortunately THUNDER GORGE blew up, finishing last and LADY PATTERN faded dramatically in the last 100 yards when having every chance. Neither MUNSEF (horribly misspelt yesterday)nor ZUWAAR got anywhere near value but both ran well enough, ZUWAAR placing and MUNSEF winning.



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After a swift headcount and, including the races at York, considered in the spirit of "comradely co-operation" (if there is such a thing) in a weak moment, I looked at 21 handicap races this week. Of those races only 4 threw up value bets, with no winners and only one place. Not an unusual state of affairs when expecting a 10% strike rate. Although the overall profit is enhanced by ignoring place betting and doubling up win stakes, the psychological impact of backing long strings of losers requires not only a deep bank but also a strong nerve (there's a better than even chance of getting six losers in a row and a ten loser run is approximately as likely as a winning favourite)

What of the rest? Those that didn't offer value? There were 17 races and 6 winners, way over that anticipated. Is there any reason for that? Only that it lies within statistically acceptable limits. Next week there may be none.

It all brings tomorrow and the opportunity to scour the cards, once more, so I have and guess what, two races to play with

Musselburgh

16:20 TORNADODANCER

17:20 PEGASUS LAD

The Mark Johnson horse won't offer value, but TORNADODANCER might, we'll see.

P.

MAGIC WARRIOR (the only one of the three of todays horses to get anywhere near value) opened at 20/1 and was backed in to 16/1, but failed to get in a blow finishing well down the field. Of the other two GUNNER LINDLEY similarly disappointed at the ludicous price of 11/10 whilst SAFEBREAKER won at an awfully undervalued 7/2.

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Tomorrow should be interesting since it will be the first Saturday since I started this blog and there look to be a couple of overlay possibilities.

The full list of possibles is

Bath

18.15 THUNDER GORGE

Chester

14:55 MUNEEF

17:10 ZUWAAR

Sandown

16:55 LADY PATTERN

Only THUNDER GORGE and LADY PATTERN look to have a realistic chance of being offered at value prices if The Sporting Life betting forecast is anything to go by.

P.

Wink, Wink, Inside Info.

Only PURUS was offered at an overlayed price from todays runners without offering a challenge during the race. Of the others it was the usual mixed bag ARTHURS EDGE finished up in midfield, ROCKET ROB didn't run, and EPSOM SALTS won at the ludicrously miserable price of 13/8.

If my colleague was sober enough and risked betting in the handicaps at York and backed the horses advised at the undervalue prices on offer, then she did ok, WEBBOW grubbed a place (10/1) due to the field size and NOBLE STORM won (9/2).

Well done K.

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One of the great advantages of considering recent form and class, is the insight it gives you into the trainer's and connection heads. You will frequently find that horses have been highly thought of and tried in races of a much higher quality than the one under consideration, but due to a relatively poor showing are dismissed by the bookies and punters alike. It's almost like free stable info. and well worth considering when the price is right.

Back to attacking the bookies margin then.

Chester

15:05 GUNNER LINDLEY

16:50 SAFEBREAKER

Salisbury

16:45 MAGIC WARRIOR

The two horses at Chester seem unlikely to be on offer at a "value" price, but MAGIC WARRIOR looks as if it may be overlayed (Sporting Life forecast 16/1)

P.

Neither of todays runners troubled the judge both finishing down the field. Of the two only Satisfaction Life was worth considering from a value point of view, touching 3o on Betfair. Theta Wave drifted but never got much longer than 7/1.

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I spent a little time looking at races which I would not normally consider, these days, due to a colleague going to York races tomorrow. The two handicaps there don't look as if they are going to offer any value with Webbow (14:50)being forecast at 10/1 (I'd want a minimum of 14/1 in fields this size and even then only bet with somebody else's money) and Noble Storm (16:40) even worse at 11/2.

No, the interest for me lies in other less salubrious venues. The appropriate sized fields occur as follows :-

Chepstow

19:05 ARTHURS EDGE

Epsom

17:15 EPSOM SALTS

18.55 PURUS

Lingfield

17:00 ROCKET ROB

Two of the above may be overlayed tomorrow and worthy of interest, they are ARTHURS EDGE and PURUS forecast at 10/1 and 14/1 respectively,

P.

All three of todays runners attracted money, two of them finishing up in midfield and one a short priced winner, fairly typical and relatively easy money for the bookie. At the sort of prices that were on offer, none were value. Overall, selections win about 18%-19%, so 13/8 favourites aren't very attractive, even when they win.




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So how does the bettor go about determining which horse has the best balance of recent form and class? I suppose that there are any number of ways which this can be achieved. Personally I use a mathematical approach to rate each horse in the field using those criteria, then select the highest rated. This approach removes the need for judgement and the associated self-doubt which accompanies it. Whatever method is used, if it is logical and consistent the horse with the current best form/class balance ought to be readily identified, then it's just a question of patience and attacking the overlay when it arises.

Tomorrow two races qualify for closer attention :-

FOLKESTONE

7:20 THETA WAVE

KEMPTON

8:40 SATISFACTION LIFE

THETA WAVE looks like going off favourite or thereabouts, but SATISFACTION LIFE is forecast 12/1 in the Sporting Life so I'll be watching this one closely.

P.

Value Factors

As suspected, no prospect of three of todays horses attaining a value figure. RAFTA, RESORT and WHAT A FELLA all failing to reach double figure prices at any stage. Typical sort of mixed bag of performances, one refused to race (marvellous), one finished midfield and one won (overall strike rate should be just under 20%).

MISARO was nibbled at on Betfair shrinking from around 22 to about 17. Ran competetively for a fair portion of the race but faded to finish out of the money in the end.

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I've mentioned the races I select, but having done that there is a need to determine whether there is a "value" horse in the race. It's no good just looking at every horse priced 11/1+, since most of them are still under value due to lack of ability at that level. There is a need to identify "over layed" horses only.

If you've ever tried to analyse a race using conventional means, recent form, course, distance weight, class, draw etc. then you've probably done hours of work to identify an odds on favourite, which a often as not fails to oblige anyway.

I've tried to identify the key factors which will on occasion throw up a potential winner at a juicy price. In the end I settled on a combination of recent form and class, that's all.

Tomorrow is unlikely to offer a value opportunity using this approach, three races offering short to moderate price selections :

Brighton

16:20 FLEUR DE LION

Nottingham

19:30 ENACT

20:00 BOLLIN JUDITH

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Which Race?

Interesting betting pattern on todays race. I thought I'd ask for a ridiculous 26 on Betfair (betting forecast 8/1 Sporting Life, but you never know) last night after identifying Bold Cross. It stayed close to 12 or 13 with a couple of blips to 15, so no joy there. This morning the an odd bookie or two went as far as 12/1, but that was it. The price went in as far 10, 10 minutes before the off, then the volatility increased. The on course bookies opened it cautiously 8/1, then it drifted out to 11/1 before rallying slightly to 10/1.

In the event Bold Cross finished 2nd after going to the front around about the distance, shame really.

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So, how do I decide on the race? Well you already know that handicaps are where I consider the value to lay, but, as ever some are better than others. My analysis suggests that the optimum field size (when plotting winning chance against price) is 10 or 11 runners.

Taking tomorrows racing, that gives,5 possible races, Kempton 14:30, Windsor 18:35 & 19:05, Wolverhampton 15:45 and Yarmouth 19:20. As it happens the Yarmouth race is out due to one horses form which invalidates it leaving four races.

The selections for each race are :-

Kempton 14:30 - RAFTA

Windsor 18:35 - MISARO

Windsor 19:05 - RESORT

Wolverhampton - WHAT A FELLA

Three of them are likely to be favourite, or thereabouts making 11/1 extremely unlikely, although bookies do make mistakes, as do Betfair layers. MISARO on the other hand is forecast at 20/1 on The Sporting Life site and currently has a couple of quid available at 22 on Betfair, so 11/1 minimum is distinctly possible.

Anyway, we'll see how they go,

P.

The Search For Value

Value, The Holy Grail of The Bettor. Does it exist or is it a myth promoted by the unscrupulous upon the unwary?

I suppose that since I'm bothering to write this, it is fairly obvious that I that it does.

I searched for it for twenty years and believe that I've found one area in which it exists, horse racing handicaps.

It exists because of the conventional nature of the betting industry in this area. Most punters will, understandably focus on the shorter priced horses, based on experts view of form. Because these experts set great store by the, often relatively miniscule, weights, seen as the reason for why handicaps are so unpredictable, rather than the fact that animals of very similar ability are "thrown" together, which is my personal view for the "unpredictability". As a consequence the longer prices in handicaps are sometimes overlayed (see Six Diamonds yesterday Newmarket 16:00, early priced at 16/1 with Bet Square, returned SP 8/1)

I am going to post horses fitting the criteria of my analysis, on this post and see where things go. The selections should be value if better than 11/1 or better (maybe Betfair, given their self-vaunted view that Betfair prices are on average 20% better than bookmakers and the difference is usually on longer priced animals) can be obtained. The strike rate is about 10%. Obviously with such a low strike rate there will be long losing runs, although there is some potential to trade these selectinos as they frequently reduce significantly in price.

Enough talk, today the interest is around BOLD CROSS 15:30 Bath, currently trading at 12 on Betfair.

P.