Which Race?

Interesting betting pattern on todays race. I thought I'd ask for a ridiculous 26 on Betfair (betting forecast 8/1 Sporting Life, but you never know) last night after identifying Bold Cross. It stayed close to 12 or 13 with a couple of blips to 15, so no joy there. This morning the an odd bookie or two went as far as 12/1, but that was it. The price went in as far 10, 10 minutes before the off, then the volatility increased. The on course bookies opened it cautiously 8/1, then it drifted out to 11/1 before rallying slightly to 10/1.

In the event Bold Cross finished 2nd after going to the front around about the distance, shame really.

-----

So, how do I decide on the race? Well you already know that handicaps are where I consider the value to lay, but, as ever some are better than others. My analysis suggests that the optimum field size (when plotting winning chance against price) is 10 or 11 runners.

Taking tomorrows racing, that gives,5 possible races, Kempton 14:30, Windsor 18:35 & 19:05, Wolverhampton 15:45 and Yarmouth 19:20. As it happens the Yarmouth race is out due to one horses form which invalidates it leaving four races.

The selections for each race are :-

Kempton 14:30 - RAFTA

Windsor 18:35 - MISARO

Windsor 19:05 - RESORT

Wolverhampton - WHAT A FELLA

Three of them are likely to be favourite, or thereabouts making 11/1 extremely unlikely, although bookies do make mistakes, as do Betfair layers. MISARO on the other hand is forecast at 20/1 on The Sporting Life site and currently has a couple of quid available at 22 on Betfair, so 11/1 minimum is distinctly possible.

Anyway, we'll see how they go,

P.