Imponderables

ONCEUPONATIME finished up being overlayed, opening at 14/1 and going off at 12/1, in fact it touched 22 on Betfair, so apart from me it was completely unfancied. In the end, the rest of humanity were correct to be suspicious, as, like a fair number of these selections, ONCEUPONATIME ran with absolutely no distinction, never getting in a blow.

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Taking the question of performance a little further. One of the reasons successful gambling on sporting events is so difficult is because there are so many imponderables which the bettor simply can't assess. That is why backing favourites is frequently unprofitable and attacking a generous (or perhaps urecognised) edge based on solid statistics is so attractive. Even so, and no matter how well thought out a plan, sometimes a horse just isn't up to the mark, feels off colour, can't be bothered etc.

Onwards and upwards, tomorrow, three races are of interest

Bath

18:40 TASTE THE WINE

19:10 RAIMOND RIDGE

Hamilton

19:30 PRIMO WAY

According to the Sporting Life betting forecast TASTE THE WINE and PRIMO WAY both look potential overlays the first at 10/1 the second at a mouth watering 33/1.

P.