Calculating Value Price

JENNY'S PRIDE never looked like being value and equally never looked like getting in the race, finished well down the field in spite of being backed in from 100/30 to 9/4.

---

Since there are no races which fit my criteria tomorrow, now seems as good a time as any to decide exactly how to determine value. There are a lot of ideas about this crucial aspect of betting. some based on logic others on "feel". How often have you heard a television "expert" utter the words "Predicton's Postulator is way overpriced at 10/1", well, I concede never, since no such horse exists but you get the picture. They never quantify it but still seem convinced of its accuracy. I prefer facts.

So how did I arrive at 11/1 for value and occasionally mention 14/1. Logic thats how.

Take the above Predicton's Postulator example. For the horse to be overpriced its actual chance of winning must be less than 10/1.

In my analysis I calculated the percentage of winning top rated horses then divided that figure into one hundred to obtain a "break even" price. The next step was to "re-visit" the analysis removing all top rated horses priced at less than the "break even" figure. Then back to the first step with the revised list. This process was repeated until the percentage did not reduce, this gave the value price. If the percentage continues to reduce, level stakes profit can't be made. Give it a try with your own selection process.

That's all folks.

P.