Value Factors

As suspected, no prospect of three of todays horses attaining a value figure. RAFTA, RESORT and WHAT A FELLA all failing to reach double figure prices at any stage. Typical sort of mixed bag of performances, one refused to race (marvellous), one finished midfield and one won (overall strike rate should be just under 20%).

MISARO was nibbled at on Betfair shrinking from around 22 to about 17. Ran competetively for a fair portion of the race but faded to finish out of the money in the end.

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I've mentioned the races I select, but having done that there is a need to determine whether there is a "value" horse in the race. It's no good just looking at every horse priced 11/1+, since most of them are still under value due to lack of ability at that level. There is a need to identify "over layed" horses only.

If you've ever tried to analyse a race using conventional means, recent form, course, distance weight, class, draw etc. then you've probably done hours of work to identify an odds on favourite, which a often as not fails to oblige anyway.

I've tried to identify the key factors which will on occasion throw up a potential winner at a juicy price. In the end I settled on a combination of recent form and class, that's all.

Tomorrow is unlikely to offer a value opportunity using this approach, three races offering short to moderate price selections :

Brighton

16:20 FLEUR DE LION

Nottingham

19:30 ENACT

20:00 BOLLIN JUDITH

P.