THUNDER GORGE and LADY PATTERN were both overlayed today, unfortunately THUNDER GORGE blew up, finishing last and LADY PATTERN faded dramatically in the last 100 yards when having every chance. Neither MUNSEF (horribly misspelt yesterday)nor ZUWAAR got anywhere near value but both ran well enough, ZUWAAR placing and MUNSEF winning.



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After a swift headcount and, including the races at York, considered in the spirit of "comradely co-operation" (if there is such a thing) in a weak moment, I looked at 21 handicap races this week. Of those races only 4 threw up value bets, with no winners and only one place. Not an unusual state of affairs when expecting a 10% strike rate. Although the overall profit is enhanced by ignoring place betting and doubling up win stakes, the psychological impact of backing long strings of losers requires not only a deep bank but also a strong nerve (there's a better than even chance of getting six losers in a row and a ten loser run is approximately as likely as a winning favourite)

What of the rest? Those that didn't offer value? There were 17 races and 6 winners, way over that anticipated. Is there any reason for that? Only that it lies within statistically acceptable limits. Next week there may be none.

It all brings tomorrow and the opportunity to scour the cards, once more, so I have and guess what, two races to play with

Musselburgh

16:20 TORNADODANCER

17:20 PEGASUS LAD

The Mark Johnson horse won't offer value, but TORNADODANCER might, we'll see.

P.